Cyclone Tracks
Description - 06-Hour PoP With 32/90 F Isotherm

Forecast Example: February 2013 Blizzard at 12 UTC 07 Feb 2013

Okay, So What Am I Looking At?

These "Model Evolution" graphics display the instantaneous 32 (90) degree isotherm in winter (summer) along with the 6 hour accumulated probability of precipitation (PoP) for different precipitation thresholds (0.25", 0.50", 0.75", and 1.00".) The image above shows the 42 hour forecast for the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) initialized on 12 UTC 07 Feb 2013. The highest probability for higher 6 hour accumulated precipitation between 00 - 06 UTC 07 Feb 2013 is in the vicinity of Nantucket/Marthas Vineyard, which lies to the southeast of the 32 F isotherm (i.e. the temperature is above freezing.)

The forecast evolution of cyclone tracks can be advanced by mousing over the forecast hour in blue above the image. Model tendencies (i.e. trends) can be assessed by clicking on that forecast hour, as explained in the Model Trends How-to.

Additional Details - The Ensemble Used

"6 Hour PoP with the 32/90 Isotherm" images are created for 4 unique ensembles: the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), the Canada Meteorological Center (CMC) Ensemble, the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF.)

Additional Details - How Often Do the Images Update?

These images are generated as soon as the ensemble data becomes available. The GEFS and SREF ensembles update four times a day from their 00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC and 18 UTC runs. The CMC, FNMOC and UKMET update twice a day from their 00 UTC and 12 UTC runs. Cyclone track data for the SREF, GEFS, UKMET, NMMOC and CMC are available about 5, 7, 7, 8, and 10 hours after model initialization, respectively.



Webmaster: Michael Erickson
Questions or comments? Email me: Michael.Erickson@stonybrook.edu.